What will happen to tourism in the year 2021 in Munich and Bavaria?
The year 2020 was dominated by the Covid 19 pandemic. The global tourism industry came to an almost complete halt. Starting in the second half of the year, the situation in Europe recovered again, but tourism remained at a much lower level than before Covid. But how will things continue in 2021? How will Munich, Bavaria and Germany continue in terms of tourism? I dare to take a look into the magic crystal sphere and give a few predictions for tourism in 2021 and 2022:
1. Focus on local guests and guests from neighbouring countries
Although travel restrictions will be lifted as the corona pandemic fades away and international travel will increase again, the next years tourists from far away countries like the USA, Australia, India, China or Russia will only play a secondary role. Especially Germans and Europeans (especially from nearby countries such as Austria, France, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Scandinavia and England) will be the main target group of tourists. The hotel and restaurant industry will probably respond to this. In particular hotels, which have a special target group, e.g. Chinese or Russian guests will have to change their approach if required.
2. More expensive air travel
After international air traffic, and especially air travel, came to a complete standstill, the airlines reacted with drastic measures.
The majority of aircraft fleets were mothballed, sold or even scrapped. If the number of passengers now increases, this initially means a shortage of the available seats. Especially on popular travel routes, such as New York – Munich, Los Angeles – Munich or Bangkok – Munich, this will lead to a much higher demand for seats than available. After all, long-haul flights in particular are likely to be more expensive than short and medium-haul flights. This will have an impact on the number of long-haul travellers (see point 1).
3. expanding loyalty programs
The trend towards the creation of loyalty programs will continue. Something that was previously only operated by very large hotel chains now appears to have also arrived at the medium-sized hotel chains. Everywhere you can see the creation of new loyalty programs and the competition for frequent travelers.
But this development will probably also separate the wheat from the chaff. Because not every loyalty program is worth to be used. The Hotel chains will have to focus on providing members with a real advantage compared to “ regular travelers“, but at the same time not losing any money through free upgrades, and cash benefits.
At the same time, there may be so-called „fare wars“, which means that the hotels outbid each other with (free) additional services or more attractive rates. Travelers will also take a closer look at loyalty programs. Only those programs that really offer a benefit, much lower rates or where the collection of points, miles or nights does not degenerate into a mammoth task, are accepted. Programs that will not offer any value will probably be punished by the customers. Especially the trigger word „according to availability“ will surely play a big role here, because it makes a big difference for travelers whether a late checkout is guaranteed or just possible and in reality hardly ever available.
4. Increase in "couponing"
Flash-sales, discount coupons, black-something-sales will gain in significance. In order to avoid or at least to soften the possible oversupply of hotel accommodation (especially outside of usual vacation and travel periods), there will be special sales with coupons and similar things. Possibly this will also be combined with loyalty programs (see point 3).This will often result in very good prices for travelers. But here, too, the customers will have a close eye and hotels with „fake deals“ will have a hard time.
5. Flexible cancellation regulations
Especially in Germany, the topic of „travel cancellation“ was a huge issue. In 2019, Germans were in third place among the countries whose citizens travelled the most (1st place: USA, 2nd place: China, 4th place: UK). In 2020, the value of the trips booked probably totaled several hundred billion US dollars.
And then came Covid-19. Hotels closed, borders closed, flights were cancelled, and all travelers asked themselves „How do I get my money back?
When the travel market reopened slightly, hotels in particular responded with flexible cancellation options, sometimes until a few hours before arrival. Travellers are getting used to this and I believe the flexible cancellation policy will play a big role in the post-covid travel era.
